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"Kamenny Poyas - Nedvizhimost"
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Analysis, opinions, forecasts

 

Prices for apartments in the Moscow region may even decrease

November and December 2010 clearly put the majority of Realtors in confusion. Each year, these months are profitable. But this year, perhaps the crisis is seriously messed up everything. So the expected price increase, and after him and activity in the property market has not happened. Perhaps the problem lies in the delayed fall in prices. When the crisis came out of the majority of Realtors have been established - a serious collapse in prices in 2009. But it was not. There was a price correction of 10-15% down. And the expectation was that the fall will occur in around 40%. Many analytical articles and research that goes with the predictions of the stability of the real estate market and rising prices, unfortunately based on the prices of the proposals announced by the sellers. Whereas the real picture is really difficult to collect. You must obtain reliable information from a variety of real estate agencies on the outcomes of transactions. The exception is new construction where the data can be more relevant. According to the expert division of Stone Belt real estate Property price difference from the exposed and the final deal of new building projects as well as on the secondary market is significant. Also in December 2010, the majority of Realtors are trying to actively respond to the situation, namely, conducting "compelling conversations" with the owners - sellers of residential real estate with a view to reducing cost. Even the sellers of apartments, seeing the inconclusive situation with the sale of their property begin to "throw off" the price. New more inert "goods" and, accordingly, have so far not reacted.
In addition to all the proposals in 2011 will continue to grow, both in primary and secondary markets. Of new building projects already announced several new "big" projects.
And of course, long a "semi-crisis" state of the purchasing power of nowhere delos. Price points of potential buyers fell by 30-40%. All this leads to a serious decline in sales of residential property. Accordingly, the prices under the laws of the "Western" market should go down.
But in general right now what that anticipation of deja vu late 2008 - early 2009. I want to believe that it is not..
07.12.2010

Do not believe the forecasts of an increase in property prices.

Theme of growth in property prices or reduce the always interesting. In recent years, analysts of major real estate companies always talk about the rapid growth in property prices in Russia. And Sberbank of Russia also claims that through research, rising real estate prices in the near future will be - 11.2999%. Analysts at the Center for Macroeconomic Research of the Savings Bank just do not consider that the real impact of the crisis, Russians and Muscovites in particular, are experiencing more and more. Real wages have not increased, but costs have increased significantly. Mortgage, if taken, then quantified monthly payments. Rental prices of commercial real estate, particularly office rent, just falling. Well, there is still the Government's commitment to reduce the cost of housing and its affordability.
Its forecast Savings business as usual on the growth of oil prices and likely on increasing the income of some parts of the population, and by reference to Rosstat - Office, which is not promptly calculates price statistics. Yes, and the source data is not correct. On average, in October - November Rosstat reports on the events of spring - summer (actually a small increase in property value), and accordingly concludes that the future possibility of higher prices. Such a position and pick up the theoretical "oracles", adding their own independent data. So for example, analysts from Incom largest real estate company, will always say until recently that the unprecedented rise in prices we are expected always.
C on the other hand the same Savings in these projections in the near future, expect positive momentum across all markets and regions, but rather slowly. Here is part of the prediction may be true, because the immediate future are different.
But now the situation in the real estate market may temporarily, but certainly not serene. The month of November - complete silence on the real estate market.
So not all the forecasts is to believe..
02.11.2010

Challenges of the new mayor of Moscow.

The first actions as mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin defined. Special attention is paid here by road congestion. According to the mayor to change the transport infrastructure both in Moscow and in Moscow. The same theme and excited, and the former capital mayor Yuri Luzhkov. And as the mayor tried to improve transport infrastructure. I remember the roads were built a small extent, but at very inflated prices. The new metropolitan government plans to build more roads. This is logical, but the money for that promised to spare. Namely, to increase funding to 2-3. Let's see how much will it cost kilometer of the Moscow road.
Among other things, on a program to develop the infrastructure of the capital would set up a special coordinating body. But such authority as the Ministry of Transport will coordinate all actions. That's really someone to obtain additional funds. The main thing that all dngi worked. But it seems everything can happen again as usual - a lot of money will settle in their pockets.
Igor Levitin, head of the Ministry of Transport has already announced its readiness programs on public transport, which will develop the many billions of rubles. Particularly interesting idea, in order to bring the infrastructure and fleet of buses to the extent that there was no desire to sit down at your car and take a bus to get to work. Here we only want to say - nonsense. This can come only by lobbying their interests. I think myself Igor Levitin at it is unlikely a perfect transportation without any problems as we know we already have - the underground, where you can really get to any desired location from any point of Moscow. Additional number of buses and probably a big infusion of Finance for spare parts would not otherwise as to the additional congestion and the settling of most finance related commercial structures.
There are more interesting ideas. Namely: the changes
logistics and freight traffic flows in Moscow and Moscow region. After all, it is often going in one place (one on the road - for example in the morning on the main avenue of Pervomayskaya Street) from year to year without traffic jams, and one day in this place begins to regulate the movement of the state traffic police or the repair work will begin. And - after 1 km of driving in two minutes, and now in 20 minutes.
There is no doubt correct direction of public transport - exit the subway lines in the Moscow region. That's really the direction can significantly relieve the heavy traffic between Moscow and the region. It could happen sooner a significant reduction in fleet of buses, unregistered passenger cars, which in turn will relieve the exit and entry into Moscow. Another thing is that the resistance of different transport structures and many of the "involved" in that officials would be great. Here we still have to hope for a hard and uncompromising course of a new mayor.
It remains only to wish Sergei Sobyanin lead wisely, listening to the views of not only "very interested" parties, as usual, and sensible people..
25.10.2010

Russia and Cyprus - taxes and real estate.

Russia and Cyprus signed a protocol amending the agreement on avoidance of double taxation. Interesting items on the income from the sale of shares in Russian companies, where more than half of real estate assets. In 2016, such income will be subject to tax in Russia is 20%. Currently, taxes on such transactions are not.
Russian companies that have a Cypriot subsidiaries are subject to preferential tax treatment in Russia.
New changes mean withdrawal from sale of real estate schemes under the guise of selling a business.
Since 2016 the company will be forced to
pay tax on these transactions.
It is likely many companies will simply relocate to other countries where there are tax treaties with Russia on a semblance of the old "Cyprus." There are other options relating to the sale of Cypriot companies holding Russian real estate. Not eliminated the possibility of raising property values in the case of the second version of events. While many experts and argue that, since there are other factors of business plan, such as simply not
include tax in the price of the property, since it is known how to escape from it. In addition, many companies - real estate owners, has already gone to the ownership change. Real estate for sale will be made outside of Russia.
So that new changes for the avoidance of double taxation is likely to have no impact on price increases and estate taxes.
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13.10.2010

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